Oil prices came under pressure yesterday with the market and the broader complex unable to escape the sell-off seen in equity markets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Middle East market continues to show relative strength "Tariff headlines will also not be helping sentiment with reports that President Trump will place tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper imports. In addition, the Financial Times reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for a universal import tariff of 2.5%, which will be raised gradually."
"Despite the recent weakness in the oil market, the Middle East market continues to show relative strength with its unusual premium to Brent widening to more than US$2/bbl. While the Middle Eastern market has been strengthening since late last year, it is since US sanctions against Russia that we have seen a much more meaningful move, with buyers of Russian oil looking for alternatives."
"Although oddly, despite sanctions on a large part of the Russian shadow fleet, tanker rates have been weakening more recently."
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European natural gas prices experienced significant weakness yesterday, with TTF closing 3.7% lower, bringing prices back below EUR48/MWh, according to ING's commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey.
EUR fell due to news about universal tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supports a 2.5% tariff on US imports, while Trump wants higher tariffs. This could limit EUR gains. The EUR/USD pair was at 1.0428.
USD/CAD strengthens as momentum grows among Trump’s advisers to impose 25% tariffs on Canada, potentially starting February 1. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) also struggles as the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to implement another 25 basis points rate cut on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar gains ground amid uncertainty surrounding the impact of President Trump's policies.